Annotation of the results obtained in 2021
1. A new approach to the development of industrial policy in the timber industry complex of Russia, taking into account spatial heterogeneity, is formed. In contrast to previously published recommendations, the formation of an industrial policy of mixed type, differentiated according to the region's belonging to the classification group on the level of competitiveness, is proposed. An assessment of the impact of the proposed measures of state regulation of the industry on the selected groups of regions has been carried out, the main provisions of the prospective industrial policy in the timber industry complex of Russia with regard to the identified regional differences have been determined. 2. A model has been obtained that allows predicting the success of a project in the field of forest development in accordance with the characteristics of the enterprise that is the applicant for the project with a sufficiently high accuracy. The use of this model to predict the success of projects for the creation or modernization of capacities in the timber industry in Russia will increase the share of successfully implemented projects, which means an increase in the effectiveness of this state support measure for the timber industry in Russia. 3. A point sectoral model of the forestry complex of the Russian Federation is constructed. The economic consequences of the prospective roundwood export ban were assessed. It reveals a significant decrease in the level of logging and an increase in the production of basic woodworking products (lumber, plywood and wood boards, etc.). It is shown that the ban will also affect enterprises engaged in timber harvesting. In the absence of demand for raw materials and the lack of their own processing facilities, many small and medium-sized enterprises may cease their activities. 4. A comparative analysis of the spatial dynamics of forest carbon budgets in the Volga and Siberian regions in the 2010s was carried out. For the regions of Siberia rich in boreal forests, there is a significant disproportion between the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of forest resources and the absorbing capacity, which is explained by the ineffective forestry regime in the territory and the high intensity of forest disturbances. The results obtained underline that in addition to using the potential for increasing carbon sequestration in traditional forest regions in the implementation of forest-climatic projects should pay attention to sparsely forested areas. 5. A 10-year forecast for timber harvesting season duration with a focus on meteorological stations of two major logging regions of Siberia: Krasnoyarsk Krai and Irkutsk Oblast using ARIMA model was made. Strong evidence of logging season duration shortening for almost all considered stations, with an uneven effect on the start and end boundaries of the season was found. The trends of the gradual shortening of the logging season will hold for the most part of the considered stations. The most pronounced effect is observed for the Achinsk station, where the logging season will shorten from 148.4 ± 17.3 days during the historical sample (1966–2018) to 136.2 ± 30 days in 2028, which reflects global warming trend patterns. To avoid losses, Siberian forest companies will have to adapt to these changes by redefining their economic strategies. 6. Dendrochronological studies have been conducted to analyze the response of forestry to global climate change. For larch forests of the Tyva Republic for the period 1998-2016, a significant effect of climate change on the increase in the area of forests affected by insect pests was revealed. The dependence of the spatio-temporal patterns of growth depression on the pest species was revealed, reflecting their migration in the affected area. It has been shown that growth depressions may be delayed compared with the actual damage by pests due to the long recovery after recurrent defoliation. Correlation and cluster analysis of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in the territory of the Khakass-Minusinsk Depression for Scots pine and Siberian larch was conducted. Results underscore the general influence of hot-dry conditions on reducing growth and suggest a spatial grouping of chronologies governed by physiography and modified by species-dependent ecophysiological response to climate. Inter-species heterogeneity can manifest itself in the intensity of the climate change impact on vegetation, and lead to prospects of significant species composition changes in ecosystems. 7. A comprehensive macroeconomic model of Russia's regional forest complexes has been completed with an analysis of the most important from the point of view of the current agenda question of forests' participation in achieving decarbonization of the national economy. A new model complex is proposed, which is a cascading iterative economic-mathematical model of the regional forest complex, detailed by blocks: logging, forest industry, ecosystem services of forests. In contrast to most similar models, which tend to be built around the description of trade flows of the entire range of forest products, this paper proceeds from the idea of considering the forest complex as the source of the full range of forest ecosystem services. This is consistent with an understanding of the increasing role of forests not only as a source of timber and non-timber services but also as a regulator of the global greenhouse gas balance and local climatic conditions. The model has been tested for the regions of Siberia and the Far East, where most of Russia's forests and their corresponding industrial processing capacities are located. The results of scenario calculations of forest complex parameters in Siberia and the Far East show that the preservation of current trends in forest management is unacceptable both in terms of sustainable development of the industry as an economic activity due to the approaching depletion of the raw material base, and in the context of the decarbonization agenda. Even if logging is maintained at its current level and fires are controlled relatively effectively against the background of massive forest-climatic projects, the goal of increasing carbon uptake to 1.2 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent by 2050, as set out in the Strategy for socio-economic development of Russia with low greenhouse gas emissions, cannot be achieved. Consequently, what is required is not just stabilisation of current logging levels, but their gradual reduction with restrictions on roundwood exports and replacement of the revenue shortfall by encouraging deeper processing of forest raw materials and obtaining high value-added products. 8. Proposals have been formulated to improve the state policy of sustainable forest management taking into account global climate change trends. Since direct compensation of greenhouse gas emissions through natural carbon sequestration by forests is not realistic under the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to carry out systematic work in a number of areas, including: clarification of carbon budget estimates (for example, by creating carbon test sites), intensification of the amount and quality of reforestation and afforestation, including in low forest and arid territories, as well as permission for forestry on abandoned agricultural lands As part of the project in 2021 the team published 12 research papers, including 5 articles indexed by Scopus (including 1 paper in the SJR Q1 journal: Trees – Structure and Function). The results of the project were discussed at a number of scientific events in Russia (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Institute of History SB RAS, Siberian Federal University, Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies) and abroad (University of Alaska, Fairbanks).

 

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Annotation of the results obtained in 2019
The following scientific results were achieved in 2019 as part of the project implementation. 1. The results of modeling the impact of global climate change on the economic performance of forestry in the Siberian regions in 1946-1992 show that the main driver for increasing the volume of timber harvesting in the postwar period was the growing demand for wood from industry, which was not limited to the dynamics of climate change. The study was carried out on the basis of the Granger causality analysis methodology using the Toda-Yamamoto procedure in the context of the problem of the impact of gradual climate change on logging volumes, taking into account spatial differentiation. The results show that, despite the fact that the global trends of gradual increase in air temperature in the regions considered coincide with the global trends, there is no reason to consider this effect as a reason for the increase in logging volumes in the observed period. Similar results were obtained for precipitation. 2. A general description of the new imitation model of the Siberian forestry, taking into account domestic economic relations, macroeconomic policy, the state of the resource base, climate change trends and trade flows, is obtained. Based on the study of key global trends in the development of sustainable forest management, transition to bioeconomics and global initiatives in the field of adaptation to climate change proposed a new simulation model of forestry in Siberia, taking into account domestic economic relations, macroeconomic policy, the state of the resource base, global climate trends and foreign trade flows of forest products. The design of the model assumes the presence of a system of equations, which is evaluated under the condition of achieving partial equilibrium in the classical form. Within the framework of this model, the following blocks are provided for the regions of Siberia: 1) internal resource flows, 2) macroeconomic environment, 3) resource base dynamics, 4) climate change trends and related phenomena, i.e. outbreaks of pests, 5) international trade flows. This model will make it possible to build a forecast of scenarios for the development of the Siberian forest economy under various assumptions about changes in macroeconomic and macro-ecological parameters, as well as to form proposals for the implementation of state and regional sustainable forest management policies, taking into account climate change trends 3. Analysis of the impact of climate change on the growth dynamics of forest species prevailing in southern Siberia (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), hanging birch (Betula pendula Roth.) and limp elm (Ulmus pumila L.)) has shown that the effect of warming is partially compensated by an increase in precipitation in the region. 4. A review of the foreign experience in forestry showed that Western countries use tax breaks as mechanisms to attract investment in the development of natural resource sectors, as well as various forms of state subsidies, educational programs and consulting with forest users, as well as price premiums and preferential access to contracts. 5. The study of global trends in climate change and the prospects of Russia's participation in the Paris Agreement showed that the estimates of carbon sinks into the land-use sector, land-use changes, and forestry (LULUCF) in Russia, obtained by individual research groups (ROBUL, VNIILM from Moscow, IIASA from Austria) differ several times, which predetermines significant differences in the possible scenarios for the formation of national commitments under the Paris Initiative. This work is proposed to be carried out within three key areas: 1) development of renewable energy sources within the country for the purpose of technological modernization of the Russian industry and flexible integration into the global trends of changing the balance of energy consumption; 2) creation of conditions for natural regeneration of forests and strengthening of artificial reforestation; 3) improvement of the system of collection and presentation of information from the State Forestry Register, without which it is impossible to create an accurate and scientifically sound knowledge of the actual absorption capacity of Russian forests 6. Based on the analysis of statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for the period 1990-2015, a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms recommended by the international community for climate change mitigation and adaptation was carried out on the example of tropical and boreal forests. It is revealed that the process of reduction of the world forest area is associated with a decrease in the rate of deforestation. The main reason seems to be the development and promotion of the UN Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The successful experience of this program in a number of developing countries has been analyzed. It is shown that the new standard form of the forest plan of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, which includes a number of planned measures for the adaptation of forests to climate change, approved in 2018, does not include the rationale and conditions for the application of these or those measures, which is unlikely to lead to the expected effect of their implementation. 7. The best world practices in the study of the competitiveness of forest products based on statistical data on foreign trade flows have been identified. The key advantages of the approach of the identified comparative advantages in trade, which is planned to be used in further work, have been identified: 1) consistency with the classical provisions of international trade theories; 2) low data requirements for analysis; 3) standardized procedure for calculating the identified comparative advantages in trade and its simplicity of substantive interpretation. The software has been developed in the R environment to automatically implement the Toda-Yamamoto procedure as part of the Granger causality analysis. Database of statistical information on macroeconomic parameters of the development of forestry in the regions of Siberia during the Soviet period of development of the country. This database will be subsequently used to expand the retrospective analysis of the mutual influence of the processes of global climate change and the development of forestry in the regions of Siberia. The results of the project were discussed at the following scientific events: - The 15th International Scientific and Practical Conference of the Russian Society of Ecological Economics "Strategies and Instruments of Ecologically Sustainable Development of the Economy" on July 2-5, 2019 (Stavropol - Kislovodsk, Stavropol State Agrarian University); - All-Russian conference with international participation "Forest ecosystems of the boreal zone: biodiversity, economy, environmental risks" 26-31 August 2019 (Krasnoyarsk, Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); - Third School of Young Scientists "New catalytic processes of deep processing of hydrocarbon raw materials and biomass" 1-4 October 2019 (Krasnoyarsk, Institute of Catalysis, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Novosibirsk: Institute of Catalysis, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); - International Multi-Conference on Industrial Engineering and Modern Technologies (FarEastCon2019), October 1-4, 2019 (Vladivostok, Far Eastern Federal University); - VI International Scientific Conference "Institutional Transformation of the Economy: Resources and Institutions (ITERI-2019)", 9-12 October 2019 (Krasnoyarsk, SFU); - SISC Seventh Annual Conference "ClimRisk19 | Climate Risk: implications for ecosystem services and society, challenges, solutions" 23-25 October 2019 (Trento, Italy); - XV Autumn Conference of Young Scientists in the Novosibirsk Academgorodok "Topical issues of economics and sociology" 18-20 November 2019. (Novosibirsk, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Novosibirsk State University); - International Scientific Conference Khachaturov Readings - 2019 "Sustainable Development and New Economic Models" 21-22 November 2019 (Moscow, Moscow State University); - Conferences of laureates and scholars of the International Scientific Foundation for Economic Research academician N.P. Fedorenko. 05 December 2019 (Moscow, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS). During 2019, 20 scientific papers were prepared, including 3 articles indexed by Scopus database (including 1 work in a journal ranked Q1), 2 articles in the All-Russian Higher Attestation Committee List journals (including 1 indexed by Russian Science Citation Index — Web of Science platform), 10 articles indexed by Elibrary project and 4 works in other collections. The results of the projects were covered in the media publications (SFU scientists proposed a comprehensive strategy for Russia's participation in the Paris Agreement. Russian Science Foundation. 05.12.2019. URL: http://xn--m1afn.xn--p1ai/ru/node/strategiyu-uchastiya-rossii-v-parizhskom-soglashenii. Siberian Federal University. URL: http://news.sfu-kras.ru/node/22521).

 

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Annotation of the results obtained in 2020
1. The database of characteristics of forestry development of Siberian regions has been expanded, including the climatic information on a wider range of weather stations and additional parameters characterizing changes in climatic conditions. The observation time series was also continued by adding data for 1996-2018. Data on the volume of logging in Siberian regions were supplemented with annual data on the structure of actual timber supply by categories: primary use, reforestation cuttings, sanitary and thinning cuttings, as well as other cuttings. The indicators of the structure of real timber yield by species composition groups (medium, coniferous, soft-leaved) were added. 2. The results of a retrospective analysis of the relationship between global climate change and the economic development of forestry in Siberian regions were clarified and expanded. The inclusion of new factor variables has not significantly changed the conclusions obtained earlier. The state of the resource base of logging in Siberian regions is not a limiting factor for forest sector activity. This circumstance can be explained, apparently, by the still high surplus of forest resources in relation to the real needs of the market. 3. A field study on the territory of the Sayano-Shushensky State Nature Biosphere Reserve (south of Krasnoyarsk Krai near the border with the Republic of Khakassia) shows that in recent decades, despite the later end of the warm season due to global warming, carbon dioxide deposition has shifted to earlier times in the fall. This discrepancy may be due to the prevalence of forests characterized by a photoperiodic cessation of growth of predominant woody plant species acclimated to the conditions of the extended warm season. In their case, warming in autumn is not accompanied by phenological shifts and an increase in carbon deposition in xylem, but stimulates carbon loss, reducing the contribution of such forest to carbon sequestration. On the other hand, for cold boreal and high-altitude forests, the effect of autumn carbon loss should not be observed as long as the temperature at the end of the season does not exceed the critical growth threshold earlier than the natural completion of growth. 4. Eight ARDL models were built based on data on logging volumes in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Irkutsk Oblast, as well as the duration of the winter season for the weather stations of these regions for the period 1966-2018, which showed the presence of a dependence of logging volumes on the duration of the logging season for all the considered weather stations. In addition, it was found that over the entire observation interval, seven of the eight stations showed a stable trend towards a reduction in the potential logging season. The most pronounced effect was observed in Achinsk (western region of Krasnoyarsk Territory), where the logging season decreased from 180 days in 1966 to 139 days in 2018, which reflects patterns of global warming trends. From an economic perpsective, a shorter logging season means less timber available for logging, which will make companies unable to fulfill their logging plans and lead to stagnation of their economic activity. In this regard, logging companies will have to adapt to these changes by revising their economic strategies in terms of intensifying logging operations. For the following reproduction of the obtained results the software was developed in the R statistical data processing environment using the forecast, trend, imputeTS and tseries extension packages. 5. Analysis of efficiency of investment policy in the industry on the basis of information on the implementation of the mechanism of priority investment projects in the field of forest development was carried out. Modeling was carried out with the help of logit and probit regressions. The obtained estimates of the regressions allowed to establish the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the scale of the enterprise, which is the applicant of the investment project, and the probability of successful implementation of this project. In addition, it was found that the larger the declared volume of investment in the project, the lower the probability of its successful implementation. The findings suggest the need to create a certain "cutoff on the scale" in the selection of investment projects for inclusion in the list of priorities. Enterprises that have a sufficient amount of fixed assets, as well as stable revenues at the level that allows the enterprise to receive a net profit, are likely to be more conscientious in terms of fulfillment of obligations under the projects supported by the state. 6. An assessment of the impact of the structure of international trade in forest products on the performance of the forest economy of Siberian regions based on the symmetric index of net comparative advantage (SNCA) was carried out. At the regional level index SNCA was calculated for the 81 regions of Russia for five product groups, as well as for each product type separately. The results show that most Russian regions actively participate in international trade in forest products. The vast majority of constituent entities of the Russian Federation demonstrate a comparative advantage in trade in low-processed wood (79%). In addition, 75% of the regions are competitive in trade in wood products with a medium degree of processing. The regions of Siberia and the Far East, which have the most significant timber resources, are mostly not included in the category of leaders in product competitiveness. The proximity to Asian markets with their specific demand for timber products forces timber producers to focus primarily on exports of roundwood and lumber. For this reason, illegal logging is a particularly acute problem in these regions, and deep timber processing is underdeveloped. Moreover, the current forest policy, aimed at attracting any investor without paying special attention to the level of processing in planned projects, can cause environmental damage to these areas. For example, regions such as Krasnoyarsk Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, Primorsky Krai, and Amur Oblast are often considered leaders in the timber industry, but in fact they show advantages in trading low- and medium-processed goods, while in terms of high value-added products they are rather net importers. 7. Work continued to formulate a model of forestry in Siberia, taking into account domestic economic relations, macroeconomic policy, the state of the resource base, climate change trends and trade flows. The results achieved in the performance of other tasks of the project are naturally integrated into the solution of the main task of the project - the development of economic-mathematical model of forestry development of Siberian regions. It was decided to model the demand for timber as a two-component parameter: it depends on the domestic demand, determined by the needs of the population (taking into account the dynamics of demand for final consumption goods) and the economy, as well as the demand from foreign trade. As the data for such calculations we used retrospective data obtained, including those obtained in the framework of projects at the previous stages. It is assumed that demand is determined exogenously and is not related to the internal state of the industry. Supply is determined by the following factors: 1) the volume of the estimated harvesting area (with correction factors requiring calibration); 2) the dynamics of forest fires; 3) the dynamics of forest decline due to insect pest outbreaks; and 4) the dynamics of changes in the length of the logging season as influenced by climate change. The equilibrium of the model is reached at the point of complete satisfaction of demand by supply. Calculations are made on a year-by-year basis. Elasticities of influence of separate factors of the model on volumes of demand and supply are initially calculated on the basis of a regression model. The model is calibrated in order to get the most adequate results for retrospective periods. The calculated elasticities by individual factors are incorporated in the model for future scenario forecast calculations. 8. The development of logging infrastructure in Russia is characterized. In addition to the really objective shortcomings of modern domestic forest management practices, Russia has some unique natural and geographical features, which are a difficult factor that significantly limits the development of the forest sector of the economy. Of course, one of these factors is the huge geographical space of the country and the corresponding placement of natural renewable natural resources, one of which is the forest. In such conditions, the logging infrastructure becomes critically important, without the effective organization of which the logging and the entire subsequent process of wood processing becomes economically inexpedient. It is proposed as a measure of state support for the construction of roads to provide concessional loans to forest users within the mechanisms of the State Development Corporation VEB.RF. As part of the project in 2020 the team published 10 research papers, including 4 articles indexed by the database Scopus (including 2 papers in the Q1 journals: Forest Policy and Economics, Forests). The results of the project were discussed at a number of scientific events in Russia (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS, Institute of Economics Ural Branch RAS, Siberian Federal University) and abroad (Italian Society for Environmental and Resource Economics).

 

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